The Environmentally
Balanced Solution
Entering the 21st Century
Draft
Vortex
RI/101 English
September 1990 |
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The
Environmentally
Balanced Solution |
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How
to continue the use of fossil fuels into the 21st century,
without destroying the environment and becoming the focal
point of environmental pressure groups.
It has been a hot dry summer in Fukuoka, in the
Philippines the rainy season was two months early, Europe
has been whipped by typhoons, the American Mid-west is
experiencing a drought and unseasonably heavy rains have
fallen in Southern Africa.
The global weather pattern is changing.
The
consequences of this are frightening, imagine a Fukuoka
with summer temperatures of 40°C or the Gobi Desert
encircling Beijing.
Scientists attribute these changes to Global
Warming which is occurring because of the Greenhouse
Effect. This effect is caused by the build up of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere as a direct result of
deforestation and the combustion of fossil fuels.
Newspapers
daily display articles of our battered environment and the
dangers of global warming. Something has to be done, we
cannot survive on this planet unless we do. The
responsibility lies with all of us to do as much as we can
as quickly as possible.
It is time to approach the environment
on a commercial scale. IDEX has the resources to replant a
rainforest. This will offset the effect of the carbon
dioxide that is produced when the oil they sell is burnt.
It will also give them a favorable corporate image that
will put them beyond criticism from environmentalists.
Invest
in the environment,
..........
it' s our only future.
This report investigates the relevant
facts and figures that such a reforestation program would
entail. |
CONTENTS |
INTRODUCTION
................ I
GLOBAL WARMING ............
2
GREENHOUSE
WARMING............. 2
GREENHOUSE GASES
................
2
RESULTS OF GLOBAL WARMING. 2
CARBON.............................
3
CARBON
CYCLE ........................ 3
SOURCES.................................... 3
SINKS..........................................
3
BALANCE....................................
3
REFORESTATION...............
4
SEQUESTRATION........................
4
IMPLEMENTATION....................... 4
RAINFORESTS............................
4
COSTS........................................
4
PROPOSAL.......................
5
LAND..........................................
5
REPLANTING..............................
5
BALANCE..................................
5
COSTS........................................
5
CONCLUSION....................
6
REFERENCES..................
6
ARTICLES.........................
7
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GLOBAL
WARMING |
GREENHOUSE GASES
There are several gases that contribute
to global warming; Carbon dioxide created mostly from
the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural
gas) in cars and power plants. Methane produced by
bacterial decomposition in nice paddies
and swamps. Freon from
refrigerators,
aerosols and cleaning solvents.
Nitrous oxide produced in the breakdown
of fertilizers and in the burning of coal.
PREDICTED
INCREASES
Since the beginning of the industrial
revolution there has been a 30% increase in
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Future increases are
dependent on the global consumption of energy. This is
loosely related to economic growth. Even with zero
growth, the next 50 years would yield a further 30%
increase.
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Visible light from the sun shines
through the earth's atmosphere and warms the land,
water and air. Each in turn radiate back infrared
energy. Some of this longer wave length radiation is
absorbed by gases in the atmosphere and then
re-emitted towards space and the earth. This
temporary 'trapping' of energy heats up the earth's
atmosphere. This is referred to as the greenhouse
effect.
A
rise in the concentration of these greenhouse gases
results in a general rise in global surface
temperatures.
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GREENHOUSE WARMING
The greenhouse effect occurs naturally
and without greenhouse gases in the atmosphere the
global surface temperature would be some 32°C
colder. However, since the industrial revolution the
increase in atmospheric car-bon dioxide and other
gases has resulted in a 1°C rise in mean global
surface temperature.
PREDICTED
INCREASES
The predicted increase in
greenhouse gases are expected to give an additional
2 - 6 °C rise in global temperature in the next
century. This may sound small but the temperature
change between the last ice age and the warmest
inter- glacial period was only 7°C and this
occurred over thou- sands of years.
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RESULTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
Many regions of the world
are becoming warmer and thus inhospitable to
current agriculture and existing plant and
animal species. The great plains of the world
are experiencing dust bowl conditions in summer.
Higher temperatures are warming
oceans, expanding water volumes and melting the
polar ice caps, causing sea levels to rise.
Harbor cities, river deltas and wetlands are
being flooded. Sea level rises of 0. 15 - 0.4 m
are predicted by 2025 and 0.6 - 2.1 m by 2100.
The frequency of heat waves and drought is accelerating
and typhoons are increasing in intensity.
Rainfall and monsoon patterns are shifting,
upsetting drinking water supplies and
agriculture world wide.
The
effect of a continued build up of greenhouse
gases spells disaster for the human race and many of
the plants and animals on this planet.
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CARBON |
Global
fossil fuel consumption 1880-2060
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FUTURE TRENDS
Despite research efforts into alternative forms of
energy, fossil fuels will remain our major source of energy
for years to come. Some estimates put the increased use of
fossil fuels as high as 2% per annum.
SINKS
Carbon dioxide is sequestered from the air
during photosynthesis. One of the largest sequesters are
trees. At present one fifth of the world or
2,6 billion hectares is covered by trees. These forests
contain some 437 billion tons of carbon, referred to as it's
bio mass. The sequestration ability of trees varies greatly
between species. Trees sequester anything between 5 and 30
t/ha per annum. This rate drops off as forests reach
maturity, which can happen after anything between 30 and 100
years.
FUTURE TRENDS
The growing demand for more agricultural land
and the need for lumber to support the timber and paper
industry has resulted in large scale deforestation.
Predictions are that this trend will level off by the year
2020 by which time only one seventh or 1,8 billion hectares
of the earth will be forested. Thus greatly reducing the
carbon dioxide sequestering ability of the world's forests.
Global forest reserves 1880-2060
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BALANCE
In order to halt global warming it is necessary to
stabilize the carbon dioxide concentration in the
atmosphere. This can be achieved by reducing the production
and/or increasing the sequestration of carbon dioxide. |
As carbon dioxide is the major contributor to global
warming, any environmental program
must first address this issue. In order to successfully
tackle the problem, it is essential to understand the basic
carbon cycle.
The
major producers of carbon dioxide are plant, animal and
microbe respiration and natural release from the ocean
surface. This is, however, balanced by carbon dioxide
dissolving in the ocean and sequestration by ecosystems. Of
more concern is the carbon dioxide produced by our modem
society.
CARBON CYCLE
Large
quantities of carbon are stored in the ground as fossil
fuels, such as oil, coal and natural gas. The combustion of
these fuels with oxygen releases carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere. This is then broken down in plants by the
process of photosynthesis. The oxygen is released into the
atmosphere and the carbon is absorbed by the plants as they
grow. Millions of years after the plant dies, this carbon is
again transformed into coal under the ground.
SOURCES
Man made
carbon dioxide is primarily produced in the combustion of
wood and fossil fuels. Fossil fuels such as coal, oil and
natural gas account for 68% of this emission or some 5,5
billion tons of carbon per annum.
On
average oil accounts for about 40% of the total fossil fuel
burnt and is thus responsible for about 25% of the man made
emission of carbon dioxide. Gasoline and diesel is composed
of approximately 85% carbon and has a density of 8OO kg/m³
Thus the quantity of carbon in one liter of fuel is:
1 liter..........0,68 kg of Carbon |
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To reduce the output of carbon dioxide from the burning of
fossil fuels it is necessary to reduce the quantity of
energy used. This would have far reaching economic con-
sequences that the world is not ready to deal with. Solar
and wind energy could be utilized to make up for such a
reduction. However, economical methods of producing large
quantities of energy by these methods are not presently
available and it will be a number of years before these
techniques can compete with fossil fuels
To increase the sequestration of
carbon dioxide it is necessary to undertake large
reforestation programs. Although there are substantial
costs involved in doing this, it would if anything promote
economic growth. Further, as suitable reforestation areas
are in underdeveloped countries, such a project would
assist them in their foreign debt payments and would also
ease economic pressure on them to carry out further
deforestation.
OPTIONS
Of the options above the second one is
obviously the most attractive method of stabilizing
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Further, it would help to
replace some of the valuable forests that have been
destroyed over the centuries. |
IMPLEMENTATION
Reforestation
projects entail three main efforts; land purchase,
planting and maintenance. The price of land varies greatly
from area to area, but it is possible to purchase large
parcels of suitable land for between ¥70 000 and ¥350
000 per hectare or alternatively a hectare can be leased
for between ¥2 000 and ¥12 000 per annum. The cost of
preparing the land and replanting it depends on the type
of trees. Estimated costs are between ¥100 000 and ¥250
000 per hectare. Maintenance costs depend greatly on the
suitability of the area and climate for the selected tree.
However if an area is chosen where the selected type of
forest is indigenous, maintenance costs are negligible.
RAINFORESTS
Tropical rainforests provide the highest rate of carbon
dioxide sequestration and are thus the most desirable
carbon sink. It is advantageous that a replanted
forest be in it's natural environment as this would
alleviate the need for irrigation and fertilization. Thus
areas of rainforest that have been logged or deforested
are of particular interest. These areas can be found in
the Amazon and Congo Basins, in Central America and in
South East Asia.
Tropical rainforests of the world
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It is also advantageous to use an
area of land which has a portion of existing rainforest so
that plant and animal species may be transplanted and the
diversity of fauna and flora found in a rainforest
maintained.
COSTS
The costs involved in making a
rainforest and it's sequestration ability are estimated
below.
Land
................................... ¥220
000 /ha Replanting
........................ ¥180
000 /ha TOTAL
............................ ¥400
000 /ha
Sequestration
.....................16 t/ha/year Life
....................................... 50
years
Yearly cost
............................¥
500/t
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REFORESTATION |
At present forest replanting
programs are underway in many countries to support the
lumber industry. However, it is only recently and on a
small scale that replanting for environmental reasons is
being carried out.
SEQUESTRATION
A wide
variety of trees are available for the sequestration of
carbon dioxide, for example the Sycamore (found on
temperate plains) can sequester 7.5 tons of carbon per
hectare, whilst the leucaena (found in tropical areas) can
sequester 28.3 t/ha. Both of these types of forests mature
in about 50 years.
The sequestration ability of forest tends to drop off
as the forest matures. At this point it would be necessary
to selectively log some of the trees and to bury them in
the ground or the ocean. However, in 50 years sources of
energy are likely to have change and hence this decision
is best left to 2040.
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PROPOSAL |
BALANCE
The following are the approximate costs that would be
entailed in the purchase and reforestation of an area of
land sufficient to sequester the carbon dioxide produced
by IDEX fuel.
IDEX BALANCE
IDEX gas and diesel sales
per year are:
.....................................
1 224 Ml/year
Tons of carbon per year:
................................
832 000 tC/year
At a sequestration rate of
16 tons/ha/year the following area of forest is
needed:
.................................
52 000 ha
or
............................
23 km x 23 km |
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COSTS
Giving a total cost of:
.....................................
¥21 billion
Over 50 years this would be:
............................... ¥420
million/year
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With a well planned advertising campaign stressing the
need to involve all people in the fight to save the
environment, it would be possible to finance this
project with a levy on gas sales and a per liter
funding from IDEX. The required cost per liter to
finance this project would thus be :
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Cost
......................... 0,34 ¥/liter |
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This decade will see ever
increasing attention focused on the environment As the
general public becomes more aware of the effect and
mechanism of global warming, the suppliers and users of
fossil fuels will come under increasing pressure from
environmental groups and legislation. It would thus be
expedient for IDEX to enter the 21st century with an
environmentally balanced and active corporate image. In
order to do this it is necessary to offset the carbon
dioxide produced by IDEX fuel.
We propose that:
LAND
Suitable sites can be found to replant the
required area of rainforest and it is suggested that 4
sites be used, one each in Africa, South America, South
East Asia and Australia.
The land chosen
will have either been cleared for agriculture and grazing
or recently logged. This land can be bought or leased from
private owners or governments. It is further suggested
that areas with some existing rain- forests be chosen.
This will give a base of plant and animal species to work
from. Further, it would provide excellent advertising
opportunities in showing the contrast between rainforests
and cleared land.
REPLANTING
Expertise in this field is readily available. It is
envisaged that a research team would be set up who would
advise on replanting methods and essential species in
order that a balanced ecosystem can be created.
Suitable reforestation areas have readily available
pools of cheap labor. It is suggested that these are used
extensively as it offers alternative employment to people
whose only other income is from logging operations. |
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CONCLUSION |
- * It is necessary to tackle
global warming on a commercial scale.
* It is possible to negate the effect on the environment
of the oil that IDEX sells for less than ¥ 0,5 per
liter.
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* The carbon dioxide produced by IDEX's yearly sales of
1224 Ml can be balanced environmentally with the
reforestation of a 52 000ha rainforest.
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* IDEX can achieve an environmental balance by 2000 AD.
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* The cost of this can be paid for by their customers
through a levy.
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* IDEX's corporate image can be one of an
environmentally concerned company.
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* A valuable natural resource can be replaced for future
generations.
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* A program to reforest areas will open up other
business opportunities to IDEX, such as nature
orientated tourism.
*
IDEX will become world leaders in the, as yet untapped,
environmental care business.
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1. The
Global Report to the President
'I'he Technical Report Vol 2.
Council on Environmental Quality & The
State Department
US Government
Printing Office
2. The Global Report to the President
Entering the 21st Century Vol 1.
Council
on Environmental Quality & The State Department
US Government Printing
Office
3. Can we delay the effects of Greenhouse Warming
US EPA
Sept 1983
US Government Printing
Office
4. Energy Security
US Dept of
Energy
March 1981
US Government Printing Office
5. Scientific
American
Various
1989,1990
6. Science
Vol. 243 Feb 1989
7. Environmental Action
Jan/Feb 1989 |
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The preceding report is only a
preliminary proposal. A definitive investigation and
costing is required before a final plan can be
drawn up.
This would require: -
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• Further in-depth research of IDEX's
specific needs.
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Identifying and visiting of actual re-forestation sites.
- •Contacting
and meeting suitable re-forestation research and
operating personnel.
- •Drawing
up program method and schedule.
- •Liaison
with advertising personnel to establish the commercial
strategy of the program.
- •Presentation
of a final plan.
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This can be undertaken by ourselves and
will take approximately four months to complete.
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